ICE Enforcement Under Trump 2.0 Reduces Employment for Undocumented and U.S.-Born Workers
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A study analyzing the first nine months of the Trump administration found that increased ICE enforcement activity led to a 4% reduction in employment among likely undocumented workers. This decline also correlated with fewer jobs for U.S.-born workers in the same local markets. Enforcement levels have since decreased from their peak.
Facts First
- ICE arrests more than quadrupled after President Trump took office in January 2025
- Street arrests increased more than elevenfold and arrests of noncitizens without convictions increased eightfold
- Likely undocumented workers reduced their employment by 4%, a trend driven by men
- For every six fewer undocumented workers in a local labor market, there is one fewer U.S.-born worker
- Nationwide enforcement has recently fallen, with street arrests declining to roughly September 2025 levels
What Happened
In January 2025, President Trump took office and ICE enforcement activity increased significantly. According to data from the Deportation Data Project, ICE arrests more than quadrupled. Community or 'street' arrests increased by more than elevenfold compared to previous years, and arrests of noncitizens without criminal convictions increased eightfold. The administration also doubled the number of traditional ICE arrests involving transfers from jails or prisons. A study by economists Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox analyzed labor market outcomes during this period. They found that likely undocumented workers reduced their employment by 4%, a trend driven by men, who make up over 90% of those arrested by ICE. The study also found that for every six fewer undocumented workers in a local labor market, there is one fewer U.S.-born worker.
Why this Matters to You
Increased immigration enforcement may affect local labor markets and economies. If you live in an area with high enforcement activity, you might observe a decrease in business activity, as was noted in Chicago's Little Village neighborhood. This could impact job availability and local economic vitality for both immigrant and U.S.-born workers. The recent decline in enforcement to levels seen in September 2025 may signal a change in policy intensity.
What's Next
The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' provides appropriations that allow ICE to hire more officers and expand detention capacity, which could influence future enforcement levels. Enforcement activity appears to be dynamic, having recently fallen from its peak. Further research and data collection by groups like the Deportation Data Project may continue to shed light on the economic impacts of these policies.