El Niño and Warming Drive Amazon Carbon Shift, Global Warming Threshold May Be Breached
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A strong El Niño, combined with human-caused warming, caused drying and carbon release in the Amazon in 2024, contributing to the hottest year recorded. Research indicates a future strong El Niño could push global temperatures past the 1.5°C warming threshold.
Facts First
- The 2024 El Niño and human warming caused drying in the Amazon, leading forests to release more carbon dioxide than they absorb.
- 2024 was the hottest year recorded, aided by an El Niño boost.
- A strong El Niño in the next 12-18 months could push global temperatures past the 1.5°C threshold.
- Super El Niños have caused regime shifts in ocean temperatures, leading to marine heat waves and mass die-offs.
- Current global adaptation finance falls far short of the $310-$365 billion per year developing countries will need by 2035.
What Happened
The 2024 El Niño in the Tropical Pacific, combined with human-caused warming, caused drying in large parts of the Amazon region. This led to a 'regime shift' where some forests released more carbon dioxide than they absorbed and stored. 2024 was the hottest year recorded in human history, aided by this El Niño boost. A study published in December 2025 in Nature Communications examined the impacts of 'super El Niños', which are defined as events where sea surface temperature anomalies exceed 2 standard deviations above normal. The three recorded super El Niños (1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16) contributed to regime shifts in regional ocean temperatures, resulting in marine heat waves, coral reef damage, and mass die-offs of marine organisms.
Why this Matters to You
Changes in the Amazon's carbon cycle could affect the global climate system. A strong El Niño during the next 12 to 18 months could push the planet's average annual temperature past the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold, a level scientists associate with significantly increased risks of extreme weather. The identified regime-shift hotspots in oceans, including the Gulf of Mexico, may lead to more frequent marine heat waves affecting coastal ecosystems and fisheries. The shortfall in international adaptation finance means communities, especially in developing countries, may be less prepared for the heat waves, floods, and droughts that climate change is expected to bring.
What's Next
Climate researcher Jong-Seong Kug of Seoul National University identified specific 'regime-shift hotspots' in oceans that may be vulnerable to future super El Niño events. The research also identified strong El Niño signals regarding soil moisture changes in central southern Asia, central Australia, the Amazon, and western Greenland, which could influence future drought and flood patterns. Developing countries will require between $310 billion and $365 billion per year by 2035 to prepare for climate impacts, a need that current global adaptation efforts... are unlikely to meet without increased funding.