Study Projects Climate Change Will Expand Wildfire Risk and Threaten More Species
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A new study projects that climate change could increase the global area susceptible to wildfires, with burned areas potentially growing by 9.3% by 2100 under current emission trends. Nearly 84% of species already threatened by wildfires could face higher risk. The research identifies specific regions, including South America and high-latitude Northern Hemisphere areas, where fire activity is expected to increase most rapidly.
Facts First
- Global burned area could increase by 9.3% by 2100 under a moderate-emissions scenario.
- Nearly 84% of fire-threatened species may face higher risk from wildfires by the end of the century.
- The top 1% of most affected species (96 total) are concentrated in South America, South Asia, southern Australia, and New Zealand.
- Fires in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere areas are projected to increase rapidly, despite being historically rare there.
What Happened
Researchers projected future changes in wildfire seasons and burned areas under four different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. They assessed the impact on 9,592 species of animals, plants, and fungi that are currently listed as threatened by wildfire on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. Under a moderate-emissions scenario, the global extent of burned areas could increase by 9.3% by the year 2100.
Why this Matters to You
You may see changes in local air quality and fire risk in areas not historically prone to major wildfires. The increased threat to nearly 84% of fire-threatened species could impact local ecosystems and biodiversity you value. This research could inform future land management and conservation policies in your region.
What's Next
The study's projections are based on specific emission scenarios; actual outcomes may vary depending on future global climate policy and mitigation efforts. Conservation efforts for the 96 most affected species may need to be prioritized in South America, South Asia, southern Australia, and New Zealand. Further research is likely needed to develop specific adaptation strategies for regions facing rapidly increasing fire risk.