Falcon 9 Rocket Stage Predicted to Strike the Moon in August
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A spent upper stage from a Falcon 9 rocket launched in January 2025 is on course to impact the Moon in August. The event is predicted to occur on the lunar near side and will be visible from parts of the Americas. The impact is expected to provide a unique observation opportunity due to the Moon's lack of atmosphere.
Facts First
- A Falcon 9 rocket upper stage is expected to strike the Moon on August 5 at 2:44 am ET (06:44 UTC).
- The impact will occur on the lunar near side and will be visible from the eastern U.S., Canada, and much of South America.
- The object originated from a January 15, 2025 launch that carried two lunar landers, one of which successfully landed.
- The stage will strike the surface intact because the Moon has no atmosphere to break it apart.
- The object's trajectory was analyzed by Project Pluto software developer Bill Gray, based on over 1,000 observations.
What Happened
On January 15, 2025, a Falcon 9 rocket launched two lunar landers: Firefly’s Blue Ghost and ispace’s Hakuto-R. Following the launch, the two landers, a payload fairing, and the rocket's upper stage were tracked after separation. The Blue Ghost lander successfully touched down on the Moon, while the Hakuto-R lander did not. The payload fairing reentered Earth's atmosphere. The upper stage... remained in orbit around Earth at a higher altitude and did not re-enter. Bill Gray, the developer of the Project Pluto software used to track near-Earth objects, published a report analyzing the stage's trajectory. As of February 26, 2026, there had been 1,053 observations of the upper stage recorded by asteroid surveys.
Why this Matters to You
This event may offer a rare chance to observe a lunar impact from Earth with the naked eye or basic telescopes, depending on your location. For those in the eastern half of the United States, Canada, and much of South America, the Moon will be visible during the predicted impact time. The event could provide valuable data for scientists studying impact dynamics on airless bodies.
What's Next
The upper stage is expected to strike the Moon on August 5, 2025. The impact is likely to occur on the near side of the Moon. Because the Moon has no atmosphere, the 13.8-meter tall upper stage will strike the lunar surface intact, which may create a visible flash and a new crater. Astronomers and space agencies are likely to monitor the event closely to gather data.