Campaign Staffers Use Insider Poll Data to Profit on Prediction Markets
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Campaign staffers working on statewide races have used unreleased poll data to place profitable bets on political prediction markets. The practice, verified by market data, has prompted new internal bans in Congress and warnings from the White House. Regulatory oversight of these markets remains a point of contention between federal and state authorities.
Facts First
- Campaign staffers have profited from bets using unreleased poll data before it becomes public.
- The Senate voted unanimously to prohibit Senators and their staff from trading on prediction markets.
- The White House recently warned staff against using prediction markets.
- Prediction market Kalshi has banned and fined several political candidates for betting on themselves.
- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) asserts federal control over prediction market regulation.
What Happened
Anonymous campaign staffers reported using unreleased poll data to place bets on prediction markets like PredictIt and Polymarket. One staffer's bet was verified by prediction market data reviewed by NPR, with the staffer stating they have made as much as thousands of dollars from these bets. The method involves receiving a tip on an unreleased poll and buying low-cost event contracts if the poll shows a better chance of winning than the market price.
In response, the Senate voted unanimously to prohibit Senators and their staff from trading on prediction markets. Representative Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) banned prediction markets from his House office and campaign in March. The White House recently warned staff against using prediction markets.
Why this Matters to You
If you participate in prediction markets, the integrity of the bets may be compromised by insiders with access to non-public information. This situation highlights a regulatory gray area where platforms like Polymarket operate largely outside of U.S. regulation, potentially leaving users with less protection. The congressional and White House actions indicate a growing recognition of the ethical and legal risks, which could lead to more comprehensive regulations.
What's Next
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is likely to continue asserting its regulatory authority over prediction markets. Prediction markets like Kalshi may face increased pressure to implement and enforce stricter internal controls against insider trading. Further congressional action to formalize rules across the entire federal government appears possible, given the unanimous Senate vote and Representative Moulton's office ban.